January 2021
What an unexpected year 2020 proved to be! I launched Xander Prime at the start of January last year, and I remember thinking Brexit and Stamp duty changes would be the key factors for the year to come. Enter COVID-19 and its unprecedented impact on life as we know it. A National Lockdown resulting in the UK property market essentially been frozen for close to 2 months. On its re opening, pent up demand alongside an attractive stamp duty cut by our new friend Rishi, got the market moving again pretty swiftly. The result, a six year high in annual house price growth of a 7.3% for the year (Source: National House Price Index).
2020 ended with two fantastic bits of news. The UK became the first Country to approve the Pfizer COVID-19 Vaccine with a mass rollout starting on the 8th December. And as I sit here writing this article, today the first Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine has been administered and ready to follow the same path as its predecessor.
Yes the UK left the EU on the 31st January 2020, however the important trade deal between the UK and EU wasn’t finalised until the 31st January, ending a great deal of uncertainty. Finally we can move on from Brexit.
Predictions for 2021
As 2021 comes out the blocks, many are expecting a busy couple of months for transactions as the stamp duty cut deadline approaches on the 31st of March. Obviously this all depends on any further restrictions due to imposed lockdowns. Following this, a cooling in the market is likely to occur unless the Chancellor announces any extensions or favourable stamp duty changes in his March the 3rd budget.
As is the norm for this time of the year the big boys like to make their predictions. As you can see from the Table below the opinions do vary from a 4% growth expected by Rightmove at one end of the scale, down to an 8% decrease according to the OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) at the other end.
What does Xander Prime think?
I believe Confidence has returned to the UK by the economic recovery following the first lockdown, the striking of a Brexit deal and approval of a two Covid-19 vaccines. The end of furlough and unemployment rates are the main cause for concern for the UK housing market and economy as a whole.
The Prime Central London market has additional concerns around the level of International buyers who will enter the market in 2021. Ongoing Travel restrictions, the additional 2% stamp duty for overseas buyers coming into affect in April as well as the performance of Sterling following Brexit will all play a part.
Taking all this into account I think there will be a positive Annual House price growth for the UK in 2021. Somewhere inline with Rightmove’s predictions at the 4-5% level. Lets touch base in a years time and see where the numbers fall!
Have a great 2021
Best regards
Alexander Wall
Founder
XANDER PRIME
For more information on the above article please contact info@xanderprime.co.uk and for full details of what services Xander Prime offers please visit www.xanderprime.co.uk
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